You identify a complex question you
need to explore.
You break down the question into factors that might affect each other over time.
You identify how these factors serve as parts of a feedback loop.
You focus your question by limiting the factors you will include.
Using the Model
You say what you think about the
relationships among these factors.
You obtain the information you need about each factor to run a mathematical
model of the feedback loop.
You make a prediction or hypothesis about what will happen if one factor
changes.
You simulate and observe that change by running a mathematical model on the
computer.
You make a graph of what you have observed.
You check your model against your prediction and against actual data.
You use what you have observed to ask new questions, make new predictions, and
test those predictions by running more simulations or by changing the model.
Interpreting the Model
You use the model to explain how a
complex system works.
You use the model to draw a conclusion or make a decision.
• You can use a model of one system as a way of understanding another system.